New study shows early brand investment increases Share of Search, a leading indicator of future market share

Brand investment is one of the hardest things to defend in a budget meeting. Google and Tracksuit have released new research to change that, showing a clear link between brand awareness and Share of Search, reinforcing the value of early, long-term brand investment for driving growth.
The study, “Return on Awareness,” combines Tracksuit’s always-on brand tracking data with Google Search insights. The findings show that brands with higher awareness consistently command a greater Share of Search, a metric widely recognised as a leading indicator of future market share, with the greatest returns going to brands that invest early.
For brands with approximately 30% awareness, each five-point increase in awareness generated roughly a five-point increase in Share of Search. The relationship was strongest among low and mid-awareness brands, reinforcing the study’s central conclusion: the earlier you invest in brand, the greater the return.
The study builds on previous work by marketing effectiveness expert Les Binet, whose research showed that changes in Share of Search often precede shifts in market share by six to 12 months, making it one of the strongest leading indicators available to marketers..
The findings arrive as AI-powered search and recommendation tools increasingly shape how consumers discover brands and products online. AI search surfaces one or two answers, not a page of options, narrowing the number of brands consumers are exposed to. In that environment, brand familiarity and trust become increasingly valuable as AI-driven experiences prioritise recognised and trusted brands.
Google and Tracksuit recommend marketers track awareness, Share of Search and sales together as a diagnostic framework. When growth stalls, all three in combination show exactly where the breakdown is happening, whether that is an awareness gap, a consideration problem, or a conversion issue – and each has a different fix.
Quotes and interviews are available with Caroline Oates, Google’s Head of YouTube and Programmatic Media and Connor Archbold, CEO at Tracksuit.
The full report, Return on Awareness, is available at https://www.gotracksuit.com/au/report/return-on-awareness
Source: Return on Awareness
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